Posted Sunday, February 13 2011 at 00:00
Kampala
About a month to voting day on February 18, an opinion poll suggests that President Museveni is the favourite candidate with Kizza Besigye in second, although it also reports that very many Ugandans feel they cannot talk freely about politics.
Five years after the return of multiparty politics to the country, six out of every 10 Ugandans say they do not talk freely about politics, an opinion poll commissioned by Sunday Monitor shows. A total 1,300 registered voters from across the country were interviewed for the opinion poll between January 18 and January 31. TNS Research International, a polling firm with vast local and international experience, conducted the survey. Some 65 per cent of all respondents said they "always" or "often" have to be careful about what they say about politics. The fear factor is evenly spread across the four regions of the country but highest in the central region.
The opinion poll is only indicative of the voter's thoughts on the day it was done, and with such high levels of fear also found, the final outcomes based on what voters will do when they are alone in the polling booth could vary significantly. Some 65 per cent of the respondents said they fear becoming victims of political violence or intimidation. This fear was highest in northern Uganda, which is only emerging from two decades of the LRA insurgency, and was lowest in western Uganda.
The suspicion was also reflected in who the respondents thought had commissioned the study: 40 per cent said "Government"; 13 per cent said the "Electoral Commission" while seven per cent thought it was President Museveni. Another 20 per cent said they did not know. Despite the fear of violence and intimidation, 98 per cent of all respondents said they intended to turn out and vote on Election Day.
Hard to call
When asked to mention who they would vote for if elections had been held on the day of the interview, 70 per cent of the respondents said President Museveni, with 16 per cent calling for main challenger Dr Kizza Besigye. Norbert Mao, who is running on a Democratic Party ticket, came third with two per cent while Abed Bwanika, Beti Kamya and Olara Otunnu all had one per cent each. The other two candidates in the race, Samuel Lubega and Bidandi Ssali had statistically insignificant figures. The figure, however, drops to 55 per cent for Mr Museveni and rises to 28 per cent for Dr Besigye among respondents who said it was "somewhat likely" or "very likely" that other people would know how they had voted despite it being a secret ballot.
Similarly, among respondents who said it was "somewhat likely" or "very likely" that they could be punished for voting for opposition candidates, those who said they would vote for President Museveni were 53.5 per cent while those who would vote for Dr Besigye were 27 per cent. The massive swing in voter intentions makes the findings inconclusive and raises questions about the efficacy of political opinion polling in the country. The opinion poll was carried out before the two leading candidates campaigned in central region which is seen as a potential swing vote area because of the fall-out between the central government and Buganda Kingdom.
Buganda question
The opinion poll was conducted at a time the central government was pushing through the Cultural Leader's Bill, a law which seeks to bar cultural and traditional leaders from politics, but which is widely seen as another wedge between President Museveni's government and Buganda Kingdom.
Asked if they thought the central government had handled its differences with Buganda Kingdom "properly", 39 per cent of all respondents said "no" while 25 per cent said "yes". Another 29 per cent said they did not know while seven per cent refused to answer the question.
No to federalism
One of the sticking points between the central government and Buganda Kingdom is the latter's demand for a federal system of government. Asked for their thoughts on whether Uganda should adopt a federal system of government, 56 per cent of respondents said "no" compared to 32 per cent who said "yes".
Some 10 per cent said they did not know while two per cent declined to answer. Support for a federal system of government was highest in central region where Buganda Kingdom is located, at 52 per cent while opposition to it, at 80 per cent, was highest in western Uganda, the bastion of President Museveni's support. This was followed by northern region where many retain historical suspicions and grievances over Buganda Kingdom's privileged position under the colonial and immediate post-colonial government.
No foreigners
The opinion poll was conducted shortly after two Kenyan politicians, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, visited Uganda and appeared, in their public comments, to throw their weight behind President Museveni's re-election campaign. Asked whether it was right for leaders of foreign countries to campaign for candidates in the race, 59 per cent said "no" while 32 per cent said "yes." Another eight per cent declined to answer the question. Opposition to the influence of foreign leaders was highest in eastern Uganda – the same region where Mr Odinga appeared at a campaign rally with President Museveni.
Term limits
The opinion poll also shows that a majority of Ugandans want term limits re-instated in the Constitution. Seven out of every 10 respondents called for their reinstatement with support for term limits highest among voters aged 19 to 24. Only 23 per cent of all respondents said they support the absence of term limits.
Succession question
With President Museveni having served for 25 years if office and contesting in his fourth election, respondents were asked to name which Ugandan they felt was capable of replacing Mr Museveni as president. Some 41 per cent of respondents named Dr Besigye although the opposition leader has indicated that this will be the last presidential election he will participate in as a candidate. Some eight per cent named DP's Mao while 33 per cent said they did not know who is capable of replacing Mr Museveni – giving a wide berth for a dark horse candidate to emerge as a leading contender.
Somalia dilemma
Respondents were also asked whether Uganda should continue to deploy soldiers to Somalia under the African Union Peacekeeping Mission to Somalia (Amisom). The al-Shabaab militia, which is opposed to the deployment of Ugandan and Burundi soldiers in the war-torn country, claimed responsibility for twin suicide bomb attacks last July that killed over 80 people in Kampala. Some 64 per cent of the respondents in the survey said Uganda should end its deployment of soldiers to Somalia while only 26 per cent said they support the continued deployment.
http://www.monitor.co.ug/News/National/-/688334/1107166/-/c55b67z/-/index.html
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