From: Nowa Omoigui <nowa_o@yahoo.com>
Date: 31 October 2011 03:02
Subject: NigerianID | NATO all but rules out Syria no-fly zone
To: defsec@egroups.com
Nato all but rules out Syria no-fly zone
Syrian president warns that intervention could lead to 'another Afghanistan' as Nato officials say Libya-like action lacks support
Luke Harding and agencies
guardian.co.uk, Sunday 30 October 2011 15.15 EDT
Nato has all but ruled out the possibility of establishing a no-fly zone in Syria after the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, warned that any western intervention would cause an "earthquake" that would "burn the whole region".
Despite the success of its Libya mission, which formally ends on Monday, Nato officials made it clear there was little prospect of the alliance establishing a similar no-fly zone to protect civilians and stem the mounting death toll in the eight-month Syrian uprising.
Some Syrian anti-government groups have called on the west to defend them as bloody fighting between security forces and armed protesters escalates and the country drifts towards civil war.
Tanks were reported to have shelled a historic district in the central city and opposition stronghold of Homs today. At least 20 soldiers were killed and 53 wounded on Saturday in clashes with opposition forces in the city. Rebel gunmen also ambushed a bus in the north-west province of Idlib, killing 10 security officers, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported. One attacker also died.
But Nato officials say the Libya "template" is unlikely to work in Syria, adding that currently a Syrian "mission" lacks both international consensus and wider regional support.
The UN security council would need to approve any Syrian operation – a step that would be unlikely given Russian and Chinese opposition. "We would need a clear mandate from the international community, as well as support from the Arab League and Syria's neighbours," a Nato official said, adding that so far "no-one had asked" for Nato's help.
Nato's reluctance to get embroiled in Syria internal conflict came as Assad warned that outside intervention in his country's affairs could lead to "another Afghanistan". In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph, he conceded that western states "are going to ratchet up the pressure".
But he added: "Syria is different in every respect from Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen. The history is different. The politics is different. Syria is the hub in this region. It is the fault line, and if you play with the ground you will cause an earthquake … Do you want so see another Afghanistan?"
Assad showed little sympathy for opposition protesters, more than 3,000 of whom have been killed, since the uprising began in mid-March, the UN says. Some 1,200 troops have also died, Assad's government says. He admitted that "many mistakes" had been made by his forces, but said his regime was now battling "terrorists".
The Syrian president maintained that those demonstrating against his rule were Islamists and Muslim Brotherhood members opposed to secular rule or "pan-Arabism", as he put it, under which the rights of Syria's Christian and Alawite minorities were guaranteed. He insisted he still enjoyed "popular legitimacy". "I live a normal life. I drive my own car, we have neighbours. I take my kids to school," he said.
With no end to the violence in sight, a Syrian delegation met in Doha on Sunday with an Arab League ministerial committee. On 16 October the league gave Damascus a 15-day deadline to put in place a ceasefire, which ends on Sunday. Since then 343 people have been killed, including 40 on Friday, one of the worst days of bloodshed since the uprising began. Protests have intensified amid fast-moving events in the Arab world: the brutal death of Muammar Gaddafi, and Tunisia's successful democratic elections last week. In a show of support for Assad's regime, thousands of Syrians carrying the national flag rallied in Sweida, a city 70 miles south of Damascus, on Sunday. There have been two other large pro-Assad rallies in the capital and the coastal city of Latakia.
The situation in Syria remains at the top of the international agenda. The UN secretary general, Ban Ki-Moon, said the latest civilian killings were alarming and called for Assad to carry out "far-reaching reforms, not repression and violence"." He also appealed for military operations to stop, and for the release of political prisoners ands well as those detained during recent protests.
China's Middle East envoy also expressed concern. He said the fighting could not continue. Wu Sike told reporters that Assad's government must take "palpable steps" to end the bloodshed.said: "The Syrian government has to speed up implementing its promises of reform," said Wu. "There must be respect and response to the aspirations … of the Syrian people."
The US has accused China and Russia of failing to throw their weight behind western efforts to isolate Assad's government diplomatically and toughen economic sanctions.
Assad has friendly relations with Moscow, a crucial backer and supplier of military hardware. During an interview with Russia's state-run Channel One channel, he praised the Kremlin for its veto of the European-backed UN security council resolution imposing sanctions on Damascus.
"We are relying on Russia as a country with which we have strong historic ties," Assad said.
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