Nate projects electoral college votes: Obama 306.9, Romney 231.1, Obama 85.1% chance of winning and Romney 14.9% chance of winning. Popular vote, Obama 50.6%, Romney 48.3%
"... Mr. Obama is at about 50 percent of the vote in the polling average in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and Michigan; at close to 49 percent in Ohio; and at about 48 percent in Iowa, New Hampshire, Virginia and Colorado.
There are not really any recent precedents in which a candidate has led by something like 49 percent to 46 percent in the final polling average, as Mr. Obama does now in Ohio, and has wound up losing the state. That does not mean such misses cannot or will not occur: there have only been a few elections when we have had as much state polling data as we do now, which is why the model allows for the possibility of a 1980-type error based on how the national polls performed that year.
But the reasonably high level of confidence that the model expresses in Mr. Obama's chances of winning Ohio and other states reflects the historical reality that the polling average normally does pretty well.
That brings us to Pennsylvania — where the forecast model puts Mr. Obama's chances at better than 95 percent."
- Nate Silver
- Ikhide
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