RE- the Stratfor analysis of Boko Haram attack on the airbase in Maiduguri
When the RUF rebel war broke out in the East of Sierra Leone in 1991 and was still confined to the provinces, it's reported that Mr. Johnson and some of the cosmopolitan Creole elites in Freetown still remote from the theatre of war and feeling safe and unaffected by what was going on in the hinterland said, " Oh the savages ! Let them continue to butcher themselves up there!" But when the savages eventually got to Freetown on 6th January 1999 to complete "Operation Spare no soul", Mr. Johnson realised that the wall and fence around his home and garage would not offer him , his wife and daughters and the rest of the family any protection from the rape and shoot to kill, burn & ravage, loot & pillage, all the boats to Banjul were filled, the airport was under rebel control – it was only then that he moaned "Which god for call? "
Re- "Boko Haram continues to be primarily active in northeastern Nigeria and does not yet pose an existential threat to the Nigerian government itself."
That could be the problem, with the Nigerian government still sitting relatively comfortable with the idea that the BK "does not yet pose an existential threat to the Nigerian government itself" and that the insurgents are anti-government and anti-Jonathan anyway, and the certain knowledge by the current Nigerian government that there's no way that the Boko Haram people are ever going to vote for Goodluck Jonathan and his crew in 2015 when they intend to bring him down by the ballot box – if indeed they intend to submit to that sort of democratic process at all.
The government is not going all out to contain the Boko Haram Terrorists, operating in the North East – and by definition, a real government exercises sovereignty over all its territories and as the Rev Dr. Martin Luther King put it, "Injustice somewhere is a threat to Justice everywhere"
"Boko Haram continues to be primarily active in northeastern Nigeria."Emphasis on "primarily". But then the Boko Haram struck at the very heart of the seat of government in Abuja, Nigeria's capital which is located at the political and geographic epicentre of the country, a few hundred miles from the edges of the North East, and their terrorist target was not a government building but the UN building, supposed to be under government protection. This of course drew more international attention to the Boko - more than the ASUU strike which started on July 1, 2013. (The Boko Haram is not expected to be interested in ASUU – as far as they are concerned, that branch of Western Cultural imperialism could all go to hell.
My first gut reaction to the news that President Goodluck Jonathan was on a four-day pilgrimage to Israel was "aha, di Boko Haram is not going to like this o!" and that could motivate them to even increase their attacks not against their own kind, but against Christian missionaries and those who went on pilgrimage to the holy sites in Israel.
"Boko Haram fighters allegedly destroyed several aircraft and military vehicles and set fire to a number of buildings"..." as well as two military helicopters."
The attack on the airbase in Maiduguri is a significant escalation, since it is not a civilian target (which usually defines terrorism) but an open declaration of war on the Nigerian military – and this comes at a time when Boko Haram has been officially listed as a terrorist organisation, by the United States. This means that they will be more strapped for cash...
In their latest terrorist operation they used "explosives, rocket-propelled grenades and fire"
The weapons that could be pouring in from Libya, Niger, Mali, and Cameroun could also be a significant challenge to the Nigerian Military - some of whom could even have some personal religious/ political affiliation / sympathy with the Boko terrorists. That the Boko could soon turn their attention to targeting valuable infrastructure, bridges, businesses, public buildings etc, in other parts of the country is another challenge awaiting the protectors of all of Nigeria's people...
Question is, as the next presidential elections approach, are we to expect less or more attempts at de-stabilising the country?
Na wah o
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