USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fw: A Compass for navigating 2014.

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-----Original Message-----
From: ayo_olukotun@yahoo.com
Date: Thu, 2 Jan 2014 11:58:21
To: <ayo_olukotun@yahoo.com>
Reply-To: ayo_olukotun@yahoo.com
Subject: A Compass for navigating 2014.

A Compass for navigating 2014. Ayo Olukotun

There are several contenders for how best to characterise the year 2013. Punch Columnist, Prof Niyi Akinnaso, described it on Tuesday as the year of the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) citing as justification the telling impact of a 6 months strike on a tottering educational landscape. Others have called it the year of impunity locating their choice in the many acts of governmental corruption committed as the Americans would say "in your face". The Report of the Presidential probe on Oduahgate, gathering dust on the President Jonathan's table appears to buttress this nomenclature. For yet others, it is the year of the opposition so named because of the incredible political upswing of an emergent, anti- PDP coalition.

For me, however, it is the year of the generator, considering how ubiquitous and far reaching generators loomed in our lives during the year. Even the federal government budgeted close to 700 million naira for buying generators in 2013 and in 2014 has already earmarked close to 1 billion naira for fuelling its generators. On New Year eve someone who is obviously a sympathiser of the Jonathan government, sent me a text message that he would like me to listen to the minister for information, Mr Labaran Maku who was reeling out statistics on the achievements of Jonathan for 2013. I replied promptly to the effect that not having had power for two consecutive days at my home, and since I am unable to afford to run my generator for more than 6 hours a day, I regret that I can not watch the programme. The point is: Without generators Jonathan and his ministers are increasingly unable to communicate with us through television. Do you see the reason for my choice of generators as the omnipotent symbol of survival amidst the ruins of state failure? If there is any validity to statements made by the new private operators in the power sector that it will take four or more years for things to look up in that sector, then the long reign of private generators and Nigeria's unbroken record as the world's most lucrative market for generators is not about to be interrupted; although Jonathan insists and not for the first time that power will become stable in June this year.

Equally, if not more disturbing, however, is the possibility long touted of the dissolution of Nigeria in terminal conflagration as the various political cold wars gather intensity in the run up to the 2015 elections. Optimists maintain that this scenario may hover in the horizons but that Nigerian politicians, no stranger to negotiation by brinksmanship or driving towards the precipice, will always pull back at the edge, sometimes the very edge of the chasm. Still on the possibility of breaking up, it is argued and with justice that the National Conference to be held early this year may be Nigeria's final Golden opportunity to calmly redesign itself and revalidate its Articles of Association. As the yoruba (Afenifere) elders recently reminded us, renegotiating Nigeria is more important than the 2015 elections; which if held in the current contentious atmosphere, may signal a final descent into chaotic and tragic fragmentation. If the Conference through thick and thin comes up with decent panaceas for resolving the national question, it will grant the fractured nation a new lease of life and provide the right atmosphere for administering the 2015 elections, devoid of what Dr. Kayode Fayemi, governor of Ekiti state described recently as "anambracadabra" a graphic shorthand for the logistical disaster that wrecked the disputed elections in Anambra state. If however a significant proportion of the political class boycotts, cold shoulders or sabotages the National conference for cynical political reasons, it may run into turbulent waters producing conflicts that will wash over into the 2015 elections as well as postpone, if not foreclose a peaceful resolution of subsisting inter ethnic hostilities as they touch power sharing especially.

Even if we, for the moment ignore doomsday predictions about the break up of Nigeria in the foreseeable future, it takes a leap of faith for any political group to believe that they can peacefully govern a country that is brimming over with so many conflicts in the usual manner. To put it candidly; neither Jonathan nor his opponents can arrive at victory in the 2015 elections without the art of political overture by which is meant the kind of statesmanship that will cobble together disparate tendencies and trade off interests against the other. The National Conference of 2014 is a necessary preclude to the elections of 2015 and the earlier all sides got down to the hard grind of renewing a nation on such tenterhooks as ours the better.

We must face up to the fact that there will be little or no governance in 2014 as the campaigns which have already started gain momentum. For Jonathan, this means he may not have any real chance to improve his score card in 2014 as the politics of his re-election, if he decides to run, will preoccupy him. Whether he runs or not, Jonathan is by virtue of his office a crucial variable in the dynamics of succession, a factor which the opposition sometimes appears to forget. True, democracy requires a vibrant opposition to thrive, but it also requires a sitting government even if a weak one, to structure the arena for competition, maintain a level playing field, protect the nation from external aggression and organise elections in accordance with the Constitution. To avoid being misunderstood, let me affirm that the current ferment for an alternative to the jaded People's Democratic Party(PDP) is in the right direction, even if we know more of what the opposition opposes than what they represent or stand for. In a democracy, however, opposition as indeed the government must remain civil, constructive and decorous in order not to fray the fabric of the nation and invite authoritarian solutions. In other words, there can be no competition if there is no minimal consensus about the rules of the game. So let the debate continue in 2014 within a responsible ethic; not with a do or die mindset that flies dangerously risking the lives of all those on board.

In this respect, government is admonished to respect the right of opposition to organise and to solicit for the people's attention without treating it as it had done previously as outlaws or treasonable offenders. In the same vein, the opposition must remain civil and avoid employing tactics that will imply that they are trying to bring the national roof crashing on every one.

Finally, the government within the limitations of the exigencies of an approaching election should mind more the welfare of Nigerian citizens, do more to control extravagant expenditure, punish corruption, combat insecurity with more focus as well as do its level best to make the national conference a meaningful and productive event. Happy New Year everyone.

Olukotun is professor of Political science and Dean, Faculty of Social Sciences and Entrepreneurial Studies at Lead City University, Ibadan.



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