ON OUR NEW 'GROSS DOMESTIC POVERTY' (GDP) INDEX
Afis A. Oladosu
Indeed, He will not change the condition of a people until they change it by themselves." (Qur'an 13:11)
It appeared officers of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had the above divine ministration in mind when they set about the task of 'rebasing' the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) index of the Nigeria economy. Thus they issued a proclamation that Nigeria now has the best economy in Africa. The proclamation did this to me: it reminded me that to live in this city is to be 'assaulted', and constantly too, by news and events which makes sense only to those whose sense of "sense" usually make men and women of wisdom insensate.
It was last Sunday that the news broke. But it was not last Sunday that the mill had been put to work to 'work' this out. In other words, arguments which informed the proclamation that the Nigerian economy now ranks 26th in the world, include the fact that an exercise of similar nature was last carried out in 1990. There was, therefore, the need, and an urgent one for that matter, to re-measure the 'pressure' in the 'factory' of the Nigerian economy. Lack of accurate GDP index, the NBS pundits opined, had led to the assumption that the Nigerian economy is second-rate in comparison to others in Africa including that of South Africa, Botswana and Egypt (particularly before the overthrow of the dictator, Husni Mubarak), among others. Again "rebasing the GDP" equally became necessary because the process usually "enables analysts, investors, and policy makers make informed decisions about the most appropriate infrastructure, initiatives, and investments to implement for the country".
Thus the data was released on Sunday by the NBS. In doing this it recalculated the value of the GDP based on production patterns in 2010. It increased the number of industries to be measured to 46 from 33 and gave greater weighting to sectors such as telecommunications and financial services. Consequently "the revised figure makes Nigeria the 26th-biggest economy in the world!"
Thus dear brethren, by 'rebasing' the GDP, our country suddenly became the "United States of Nigeria". Our nation's economy instantly overtook that of South Africa. All these have occurred, you must remember dear Sister, on paper! All these have occurred, dear brother, courtesy of the 'inimitable' power conferred on the statistician to make figures speak! All these have occurred sequel to the magic wrought by the unknowable data in the hands of economists in the corridors of power.
Hurray! The Nigerian economy is now deemed to be 'better' than that of some countries in Latin America whose economy remains a source of envy for other third world economies. Our economy is now deemed to be better than that of Malaysia which has long been a producer of an home-made car since over a decade now.
But we must pause and ponder another data which says sixty-one (61) percent of Nigerians live on less than a dollar a day. So what are we saying? To be circumspective of data and statistics, particularly those ones on the Nigerian economy is to be wise in a season in which folly pays.
But whether the data is right or wrong does not actually matter. I am of the view that it is of no use to the ordinary Nigerians should the NBS go to town tomorrow with the declaration that the Nigerian economy has overtaken that of the United States. I thought the real issue of concern to Nigerians is who would intervene to put smiles on their haggard and grief-stricken faces.
Brethren, travel across the land and you would come across able, employable but unemployed Nigerians travelling round our cities in search of jobs that are not available. Just before Barack Obama won his second presidency, the unemployment rate in the US economy was about 7 percent. Such a rate was considered unhealthy for the American dream. The unemployment rate in this country today hovers above 23 per cent. If you doubt this cast your mind back to the tragedy of the recruitment into the Nigerian Immigration service. Yet this economy has been given a clean bill of health!
Brethren, travel round our cities and you would realize that the new GDP is actually an acronym for new Gross Domestic Poverty (GDP) index. Brethren, if you remember you provide road for your car, electricity for your home, health for members of your family and security for your neighborhood all by yourselves, you would come to the conclusion that the Nigerian economy has only overtaken others in Africa in negative terms.
On an academic visit to Malaysia a couple of years ago, I could not but wonder, face to face with wonders in the city of Kuala Lumpur, how many years it would take my country to reach the milestone the Malays have attained in infrastructural development. The road network in Kuala Lumpur reminded me of the ones in Washington D.C. The transport system in Perak calls to question the engineering wizardry of those Americans who put together the wonders you would behold as a first-timer in New York City. I spent a year in the Asian land and not for once did we have an electricity black-out.
Brethren, I was equally in Cairo the other day and was enchanted by the mileage Egyptians have achieved in Electricity generation. I consequently wanted to know the source of the magic. Brethren, Cairo has gone beyond 40,000 megawat mileage; Nigeria is still battling with achieving the 10000 threshold. Yet your economy has been declared the best of all.
Brethren, I was told that in successful economies the rate of inflation is never allowed to go above 2.0 per cent because once it does the economy is in crisis. Ask your neighbor about the inflation rate in our economy presently. It is above 10 percent, yet Nigeria still de Kampe!
Brethren, in 2010, the exchange rate of the dollar to the Malaysian Ringit was one to three. In that same year, a dollar was exchanging for around 150 to 155 naira in this country. Today, in 2014, the exchange rate of the dollar to the Malaysian Ringit remains ratio one to three; the exchange rate of the dollar to the naira has jumped to 170! Yet our economy is now better than that of Malaysia!!
But by saying the Nigerian economy is now the best in Africa, does this not call attention to the possibility that there has been a deliberate policy on the part of successive governments in this country to keep the citizen in penury? In other words, if the statistics spurned by the NBS is true does it not stand to reason that all those who have presided over this country for the past two decades should be arraigned in a court of law for criminal collusion and pauperization of the Nigerian masses? Or how else might we make sense of the 'nonsense' in the argument that the reason most Nigerians are becoming poorer and poorer by the day is that Nigeria as a country is getting richer and richer by the hour! But this is talking from reason; we are in a season of unreason!
(This piece was originally written for the Guardian on Friday)
Oladosu A. Afis Ph.D
No comments:
Post a Comment