USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: Friday Essay: Why the South-East Should Stop Agitating for an Additional State - and Insist on Geo-Political Federating Units - by Bolaji Aluko

Dr. Ugwuanyi:

I have not based my counter-argument merely on land mass or population, but zeroing in on the issue of equity/equality, argued that that narrow view is far less attainable economically and politically than the broader campaign for a geo-zonal political arrangement, and that that arrangement is even more to the advantage of the SE than any other zone.

And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

On Monday, May 5, 2014, 'ugwuanyi Lawrence' via USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> wrote:

I think applying  the theory of land mass as a basis for state creation is politically unfair and unjust

What is a land?

The Nigeria Delta land that is the soul of modern Nigeria would likely have a land mass that is less than one twentieth of the entire country.Would you compare the meaning and worth of this land to other lands that harbour Nigerians who are the political consumers of  wealth of Niger-Delta area?

I think land should amount more to people and wealth than anything else.A state is for people and not for  land.

I think it may be important to examine the population theory and look at whether the population of South East does not justify the demand.But while doing this recall that the South East are dispersed in several parts of Nigeria where believably they might be "serving" a population factor  there as well  even they often lose in  political bargain living in these places.

In the Nigerian universities  you  will shocked by the number of students that do not get admissions because of the quota idea that recommends the state of origin as a criteria.The south east often suffer most here.I think people should look at viability theory of state creation and how it lead to a more functional organ of administration of governance and justice.

You probably need to pass through Lokoja or Awka or Asaba to see the wonders of state creation in terms expanding the social space for development even as most states often harbour "demo-oligarchs" who attempt to affect the larger political gain of state belonging.The state organ as deficient as these may be still appears to be a viable organ for running Nigeria even as it may be wiser to design or imagine a platform to coordinate these states at zonal level in between the state and  the "octopal federal structure" that generates and "federates" Nigerian problem.

I hope I am wrong to think that the  the voting powers and the gains of political bargaining at the upper legislative levels may be the reason for  a deeper resentment for additional state for South East.


Lawrence Ogbo Ugwuanyi,Ph.D
GZU-Zimbabwe.

On Saturday, May 3, 2014 4:29 AM, Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:

 

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Friday Essay:  Why the South-East Should Stop Agitating for an Additional State - and Insist on Geo-Political Federating Units

by

Mobolaji  E. Aluko, PhD

alukome@gmail.com

May 2, 2014

_________________________________________________________________

My People:

Ignoring Abuja FCT, there are thirty-six (36) states among the six (6) "informal" geo-political zones in the country, which means that on average each geo-zone has six (6)  states.  However while the North-West geo-zone actually has seven (7) states in its embrace, the South-East zone has only five  - while all the other four zones have six states each.  This  "inequity" (a la South-East)  is largely the basis for the agitation of one more state for the South-East BY the South-Easterners.

It is NOT a valid agitation.  

First, the geo-zones are NOT constitutionally recognized, and secondly clearly the inequality/inequity will NOT be solved anyway by the creation of an additional state just in the South-East, unless simultaneously two of the states in the NW agree to merge, or failing that, two more states are created in the SE, while one more state each is created in all the other states, while the NW the is left at status quo ante.    Besides, quite frankly, neither the landmass or the population of the SE or the homogeneity of the Igbo people of the South-Eastern geo-zone recommends this additional state -- just look at the map of Nigeria, and the incredibly short distances between the capital cities of the South-Eastern states.

What is fair is fair.

Now, objectively, the creation of more states does not mean a bigger national economic pie.  Rather given a set pot of pie size X (say trillion naira), previously divided among 36 states will now be divided among 37 states.  For the 7-state geo-zone of NW, this means  7*(1/36 - 1/37)/(1/36)*100 or 7*2.7% or 18.9% reduction  in economic pie,  for the new 6-state geo-zone of SE, a (6/37-5/36)/(5/36)*100 or 16.8% increase in the pie, and for each of the other four 6-geozones, it would be a 6*2.7% or 16.3% reduction.

This is therefore a deal in which ONLY the South-East gains economically, despite equality of states with four other zones. 

It is a bad deal for all but one.

Now suppose we divide the X pie on the basis of EQUALITY of zones, so that each got X/6. Then,  the 7-zone NW would get  X/6 instead of 7X/36 - or 14.3% reduction - at least less than 18.9%. the South-East will make a 20% increase if it remains at 5 states - which would be MORE than 16.8%.  On the other hand,  each of the six-state zones would have zero change - yes zero. 

It is therefore not a bad deal for all but one.

But before I leave.....

For existential reasons, all the Southern States support the new geo-political federating-unit arrangement - except unwisely, t the South-East would settle for one additional state in that stead.  The NC  would be able shake loose of the Northern hegemony - in some sense.  Four out of six is mathematically better than one of out six - and that is what will benefit Nigeria.

More reason why we should all go for the geo-political arrangement...

And there you have it.

 

Bolaji Aluko

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