Monday, June 23, 2014

Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - My Predictions after Round 2 Group Play of World Cup 2014 in Brasil {Re: My Predictions after Round 1 Group Play of World Cup 2014 in Brasil

Hi Ken,
 
I have been remiss on films, but will make it up.

It's simple, or not so depending. The team that gets the most points (or if I they are equal, the team with the best goal difference). I am unsure whether head-to-head to counts--- that is, if two teams are equal on goal difference and point, then who did best against each other. This is unlikely to happen because  win the group they are in; the one that.

In the case of CI/Naija/Algeria, their destiny is in their hands: they have to make sure that they win to be sure of going through, there are other permutations based upon whether they draw/tie, or if they loose- they could still go through.

CI if they win, they go through; if they tie/draw, they have to rely upon Japan loosing or tying/drawing. If they loose to Greece, they are out because Greece will have more points; similarly, if Japan defeats Colombia, they are out, as Japan will have more point, and will be the goal difference that

Nigeria: kif-kif,  le même chose, except, it is Iran will go through if Nigeria looses and Iran beats Bosnia & Herzegovina. If they loose to Argentina and B&H beats Iran, they they go through. If Iran ties/draws with B&H,  and they loose, then they go through.

Algeria "only" has to tie Russia to go through, and if they win they go through. If they loose, Russia goes through.

Ghana needs to beat Portugal and hope that Germany beats  the US. They can both be tied if Ghana beats Portugal by a margin that is equivalent to the US, but then it would be head to head, which, I believe, would mean hat the US goes through. Portugal goes through, if they beat Ghana and  US looses  with a margin that is equal to or less than what they US goal difference is-- not easy as they lost by four in the first game against Germany. 

BTW,   with all the gripes about refereeing (terrible, unjust shi..t happens), fortunately we do not get the anti-African sentiment in the coverage on the CBC here in Canada, that you people down there appear to be suffering under.

Pablo

On 2014-06-23 3:04 AM, kenneth harrow wrote:
could someone explain to me the point system for qualifying?
ken

On 6/23/14 5:46 AM, Mobolaji Aluko wrote:


My People:

This has been a very exciting and almost unpredictable World Cup so far - with goals galore and nail-biting endings.   All 32 teams have now played two matches each - Round 2 of Group play is over, and five teams (Netherlands, Chile, Colombia, Argentina and Belgium) have qualified for the Round of 16 already, with France practically a shoo-in. Some teams have under-performed and are out of the tournament (eg current world champions Spain) and others have over-performed and are still in (eg Costa Rica),  Some over-performers are out though (Australia and Bosnia-Hercegovina), while some under-performers are still in (Italy and Argentina). 

And African teams -  except for hapless Cameroon (last and out in Group A, and yet to face Brazil), and despite earlier (first-round) recriminations -  are still very much in contention.  To be commended are Ivory Coast Elephants (2nd to Colombia in Group C), Nigeria Super Eagles (2nd to Argentina in Group F), Algeria Desert Foxes (2nd to Belgium in Group H), and Ghana Black Stars (3rd to to Germany and USA in Group G).  All it requires for Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Algeria to win their remaining group play games against Greece (Tuesday Jun 24),  Argentina (Wednesday) and Russia (Thursday) At this point, only Ghana's hope of qualifying - it plays against Portugal on Thursday -  is doubtful, because because beating Portugal is not just enough, but by certain margins to overcome losses by one of either USA or Germany who are now playing each other in their Group of Death.

So what are now my predictions AFTER this Round Two as we enter into this crucial week of final matches of group play? New realities have made me to add Costa Rica and remove England, as well as add Algeria and remove Russia:

Group A - Brazil, Mexico  (remains the same as after Round One)
Group B - Netherlands, Chile (they have both qualified; as previously predicted)
Group C - Colombia, Ivory Coast  (remains the same as after Round One. Colombia has qualified)
Group D - Costa Rica Italy  (formerly Italy, England)
Group  E - France, Ecuador (remains the same as after Round One. With its large goal difference, only magic will make France NOT to qualify here)
Group F - Argentina, Nigeria (remains the same as after Round One. Argentina has qualified)
Group G - Germany, USA (remains the same as after Round One)
Group H - Belgium, Algeria (formerly Belgium, Russia. Belgium has qualified)


And there you have it.


Bolaji Aluko


Score Table After Round 2 of Group Play (Source:  BBC Sports)

Group A


Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 Brazil 2 2 4
2 Mexico 2 1 4
3 Croatia 2 2 3
4 Cameroon 2 -5 0

Group B


Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 Netherlands 2 5 6
2 Chile 2 4 6
3 Australia 2 -3 0
4 Spain 2 -6 0

Group C


Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 Colombia 2 4 6
2 Ivory Coast 2 0 3
3 Japan 2 -1 1
4 Greece 2 -3 1

Group D


Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 Costa Rica 2 3 6
2 Italy 2 0 3
3 Uruguay 2 -1 3
4 England 2 -2 0

Group E


Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 France 2 6 6
2 Ecuador 2 0 3
3 Switzerland 2 -2 3
4 Honduras 2 -4 0

Group F


Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 Argentina 2 2 6
2 Nigeria 2 1 4
3 Iran 2 -1 1
4 Bos-Herce 2 -2 0

Group G


Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 Germany 2 4 4
2 USA 2 1 4
3 Ghana 2 -1 1
4 Portugal 2 -4 1

Group H


Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 Belgium 2 2 6
2 Algeria 2 1 3
3 Russia 2 -1 1
4 South Korea 2 -2 1

On Tue, Jun 17, 2014 at 10:58 PM, Mobolaji Aluko <alukome@gmail.com> wrote:


My People:

After fully watching many of Round 1 matches, and at least snippets of ALL of them, my predictions of group-play winners are as follows:

Group A - Brazil, Mexico
Group B - Netherlands, Chile
Group C - Colombia, Ivory Coast
Group D - Italy, England
Group  E - France, Ecuador
Group F - Argentina, Nigeria
Group G - Germany, USA
Group H - Belgium, Russia

Those are sixteen predictions...not all easy.  My target success rate is 80% - that is, thirteen correct, with England, Nigeria (unfortunately) and Russia being my doubtful ones above.

And there you have it.


Bolaji Aluko
Soccer Pundit and Maestro



As It Stood Table After Round 1 Group Play

 


Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 Brazil 1 2 3
2 Mexico 1 1 3
3 Cameroon 1 -1 0
4 Croatia 1 -2 0

Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 Netherlands 1 4 3
2 Chile 1 2 3
3 Australia 1 -2 0
4 Spain 1 -4 0

Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 Colombia 1 3 3
2 Ivory Coast 1 1 3
3 Japan 1 -1 0
4 Greece 1 -3 0

Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 Costa Rica 1 2 3
2 Italy 1 1 3
3 England 1 -1 0
4 Uruguay 1 -2 0

Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 France 1 3 3
2 Switzerland 1 1 3
3 Ecuador 1 -1 0
4 Honduras 1 -3 0

Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 Argentina 1 1 3
2 Iran 1 0 1
3 Nigeria 1 0 1
4 Bos-Herce 1 -1 0

Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 Germany 1 4 3
2 USA 1 1 3
3 Ghana 1 -1 0
4 Portugal 1 -4 0

Position Team Played GoalDifference Points
1 Belgium 1 1 3
2 Russia 1 0 1
3 South Korea 1 0 1
4 Algeria 1 -1 0

 


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--   kenneth w. harrow   faculty excellence advocate  professor of english  michigan state university  department of english  619 red cedar road  room C-614 wells hall  east lansing, mi 48824  ph. 517 803 8839  harrow@msu.edu
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