USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: My Predictions after Round 2 Group Play of World Cup 2014 in Brasil {Re: My Predictions after Round 1 Group Play of World Cup 2014 in Brasil

I find Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight to have the most easily digestible predictions and analyses - from a numbers crunching perspective!

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/world-cup/

On Monday, June 23, 2014 1:18:29 AM UTC-4, Bolaji Aluko wrote:

My People:

This has been a very exciting and almost unpredictable World Cup so far - with goals galore and nail-biting endings.   All 32 teams have now played two matches each - Round 2 of Group play is over, and five teams (Netherlands, Chile, Colombia, Argentina and Belgium) have qualified for the Round of 16 already, with France practically a shoo-in. Some teams have under-performed and are out of the tournament (eg current world champions Spain) and others have over-performed and are still in (eg Costa Rica),  Some over-performers are out though (Australia and Bosnia-Hercegovina), while some under-performers are still in (Italy and Argentina). 

And African teams -  except for hapless Cameroon (last and out in Group A, and yet to face Brazil), and despite earlier (first-round) recriminations -  are still very much in contention.  To be commended are Ivory Coast Elephants (2nd to Colombia in Group C), Nigeria Super Eagles (2nd to Argentina in Group F), Algeria Desert Foxes (2nd to Belgium in Group H), and Ghana Black Stars (3rd to to Germany and USA in Group G).  All it requires for Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Algeria to win their remaining group play games against Greece (Tuesday Jun 24),  Argentina (Wednesday) and Russia (Thursday) At this point, only Ghana's hope of qualifying - it plays against Portugal on Thursday -  is doubtful, because because beating Portugal is not just enough, but by certain margins to overcome losses by one of either USA or Germany who are now playing each other in their Group of Death.

So what are now my predictions AFTER this Round Two as we enter into this crucial week of final matches of group play? New realities have made me to add Costa Rica and remove England, as well as add Algeria and remove Russia:

Group A - Brazil, Mexico  (remains the same as after Round One)

Group B - Netherlands, Chile (they have both qualified; as previously predicted)

Group C - Colombia, Ivory Coast  (remains the same as after Round One. Colombia has qualified)

Group D - Costa Rica Italy  (formerly Italy, England)

Group  E - France, Ecuador (remains the same as after Round One. With its large goal difference, only magic will make France NOT to qualify here)

Group F - Argentina, Nigeria (remains the same as after Round One. Argentina has qualified)

Group G - Germany, USA (remains the same as after Round One)

Group H - Belgium, Algeria (formerly Belgium, Russia. Belgium has qualified)

And there you have it.

Bolaji Aluko

Score Table After Round 2 of Group Play (Source:  BBC Sports)

Group A

Position	Team	Played	GoalDifference	Points
1	Brazil	2	2	4
2	Mexico	2	1	4
3	Croatia	2	2	3
4	Cameroon	2	-5	0

Group B

Position	Team	Played	GoalDifference	Points
1	Netherlands	2	5	6
2	Chile	2	4	6
3	Australia	2	-3	0
4	Spain	2	-6	0

Group C

Position	Team	Played	GoalDifference	Points
1	Colombia	2	4	6
2	Ivory Coast	2	0	3
3	Japan	2	-1	1
4	Greece	2	-3	1

Group D

Position	Team	Played	GoalDifference	Points
1	Costa Rica	2	3	6
2	Italy	2	0	3
3	Uruguay	2	-1	3
4	England	2	-2	0

Group E

Position	Team	Played	GoalDifference	Points
1	France	2	6	6
2	Ecuador	2	0	3
3	Switzerland	2	-2	3
4	Honduras	2	-4	0

Group F

Position	Team	Played	GoalDifference	Points
1	Argentina	2	2	6
2	Nigeria	2	<td class="" style="padding:4px 12px 4px 0px;border-top-width:1px;border-top-style:solid;border-t

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