FASHOLA-AREGBESOLA PRESIDENTIAL TICKET IN 2015
This is an exercise in political thought experiment. It just didn't pop into my head; it is the result of some secret but fervent wish that Niheria will defeat my scepticism. Well, a terrible disease requires a terrible solution. My political imagination concocted this brew in its stark suddenness. It happens to be the most startling and the most promising compared to, say, a Jonathan- Sambo return ticket, or a Buhari-TInubu, Atiku-Amechi, Buhari-Bakare or any other possible.presidential combination. ticket. So, don't just scoff. Hasn't Nigeria always been in a permanent state of possibility?
Let me begin with a personal narrative about Nigeria. There are so many political commentators and analysts who have become staunch patriots, convinced of the possibility of a positive resolution of the Nigerian predicament. These optimists--many on this forum--share the same perception of the terrible trajectory of missed opportunities, unbridled political opportunism and a terrible leadership deficit that has marred the nation's many years of political evolution. Yet, the optimists are seeing something beyond the common but gloomy historical observation of woes and failures.
Well, I don't seem to see beyond the failing nation building experiences. That lack of patriotic insight drove me relentlessly into a sceptical, near-cynical political status. I doubt the efficacy of citizenship in Nigeria; governance, for me, is hopelessly locked up in a political labyrinth of deceits and conceits; I serious distrust the democratic experiment in Nigeria (I have never voted; nothing suggests I ever will vote). I have past and present political experiences to cite as irrefutable demonstrations of protracted and habituated national bad faith. Let me cite a simple but emblematic and current source of governance worry in Oyo State. There is a small but significant bridge that links a large community to the rest of Ibadan. The community is called Apete. The bridge has been barely functional since Governor Ajimobi came to power. 'Barely function' is mild. The constant collapse of the bridge has led to many lives being lost in the swift and flowing river the bridge is supposed to abridge. Recently, the bridge collapsed again after a heavy downpour and, as usual, many lives were swept away in the flood. Of course, the governor came and gave the usual political platitude about government coming to the aid of 'the good people of Apete.' Then the hapless (?) people watched as the government 'swung' into action, slowly stretching the reconstruction of the bridge until election arrives. This same bridge has been comatose for more than four years, but then it has no political capital...none, until election period draws near!
I know, of course, that the Apete-Ibadan example is somehow insignificant compared with the larger anomie characterising Nigeria. But the cause and the consequence are the same. Boko Haram, corruption, inept leadership, comatose educational institutions, ad nauseam.
Well, this depressing narrative is the norm...until some other nascent experiences begin to stare you in your sceptical face. Maybe that's where the optimists are better than the sceptics--they are willing to grasp at any national straw to prove their optimism. Thus, apart from being an exercise in political thought experiment, my Fashola-Aregbesola presidential ticket is a serious exercise in projecting political optimism--a sceptic is attempting to overreach himself!
Now to some provisos about the proposed ticket. First: Fashola.and Aregbesola ain't no political saints. For one, both have the albatross of political godfatherism dangling on their neck. Asiwaju Tinubu casts a terrible gloom over both their administration. A friend, who is in the know about Ogbeni (Aregbesola's title) recently told me about the extent of Aregbesola's 'near-worship' attachment to Tinubu. This attachment, of course, necessarily translates into extra-governance costs that draws the state back one way or the other. Second: Lagos or Osun isn't Nigeria. The problem of scale can sometimes make a terrible mess of local achievements and administrative acumen.
In spite of these, Fashola and Aregbesola have proven themselves. They serve as optimistic beacon for weary sceptics like me who are desperate for some alternative experiences of positive developments. My expectation for the APC and the Southwest was for the governors--Fashola in Lagos, Amosun in Ogun, Ajimobi in Oyo, Mimiko in Ondo (the only non-APC governor) and Fayemi in Ekiti--to make the region an example of good governance and steadfast leadership. Well...things are the way they are now. Fayemi became a terrible disappointment. I heard Amosun is doing some governance stuff in Ogun. Mimiko's Ondo is just there. Is the Fashola-Aregbesola presidential ticket therefore arbitrary? Well, I think both of them have a loud governance profile that is extremely difficult to overlook. Don't ask me to begin tabulating or enumerating, please.
Even if this ticket is an arbitrary one, it portends a serious possibility. For one, we have two able and foresighted individuals who know what they want to do; individuals who don't just want to play politics with the state's resources. In Fashola and Aregbesola, we have vision colliding with will and focus. My friend who is in the know told me about about Osun's IGR jumping from 300 million naira to 1.3 billion naira. And that's the least of the achievements. I hope I am not just romanticising these fellows. I didn't say they were saints, remember? On the other hand, these governors seem to be able to manage the influence of the godfather un a manner that would not be too detrimental to their various states. I know this is a weak presumption. Maybe my justification is that, unlike Ngige's Anambra or Akala's Oyo or Saraki's Kwara, these two were able to obtain an achievement status that could mitigate any harm that godfatherism could portend.
So: let's assume all these reasoning could pass muster? Let's assume this ticket could win the primary. And it is right here that we confront scepticism again, and the threat of blanketing pessimism. I doubt this ticket would even come close to winning the primary. The party primary is often the death of political possibility in Nigeria.
Let's reflect on this. What's the first thing that jumps at you by merely concentrating on the characters suggested by the names--Fashola-Aregbesola? Well, you will likely immediately see a Yoruba presidential ticket. Or, a Muslim ticket. If that's what you immediately perceive, you're a true Nigerian politician! It will take some level of enlightenment to see beyond ethnicity and religion in the projection of a set of candidates who could possibly change our democratic experiment for good. And for good measure, to what extent does our political culture allow good democratic intentions to survive the murkiness of realpolitik?
So, maybe the Fashola-Aregbesola ticket is an illusion to begin with; a mere fantasy of reaching for the sky.
Adeshina Afolayan
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