USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fw: 2015: LESSONS FROM THE BRAZILIAN ELECTIONS

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-----Original Message-----
From: maggie anaeto <maganaeto@yahoo.co.uk>
Date: Wed, 29 Oct 2014 15:00:31
To: <ayo_olukotun@yahoo.com>
Subject: 2015: LESSONS FROM THE BRAZILIAN ELECTIONS

2015: LESSONS FROM THE BRAZILIAN ELECTIONS

Ayo Olukotun

"She (victorious incumbent Dima Roussef) is not great but Aecio (defeated challenger) would have been worse since he cares less about the rights of the workers. I voted for the lesser of two evils"
- Brazilian voter quoted
in the New York Times,
26th October, 2014

Throwing ripples all around the political spectrum is Tuesday's defection to the All Progressive Congress (APC) of Aminu Tambuwal, Speaker of the House of Representatives; complicating the guessing game about who would eventually emerge as the party's presidential candidate.
Before that much predicted party switch, there was controversy still raging, concerning what is now increasingly described as former Ekiti state governor, Dr. Kayode Fayemi's 'castle' referring to the government lodge, estimated at N3 billion, replete with gold beds denominated in millions of naira. Placed side by side with Dr. Tokunbo Awolowo Dosunmu's reminiscence last year about her father going to work inconspicuously in the 1970's from his modest apartment in Surulere as Vice Chairman of the Federal Executive Council, we probably need to reframe the debate on priorities of the emergent political class.
Then this. A social tornado is looming over the possibility of yet another hike in the price of petroleum. Is this the ultimate election year jinx? Forgive me for deferring these engrossing issues for another day even as you come with me to Brazil, which last week successfully held the second round of a vigorous and rancorous presidential election. As is well known, the incumbent and first woman to be elected president of Brazil, Roussef narrowly defeated her Social Democratic challenger, Aecio Neves by garnering 51.6% of the votes while Neves followed closely with 48.4%.
Brazil, like Nigeria is a middle level regional power with a huge population, and a history of transition to democracy after many years of military rule. There are useful lessons to be drawn therefore, from Sunday's election as Nigeria prepares for the make or break elections of next year. Interestingly, both countries are currently saddled with a sluggish economy caused similarly by the ebbing of commodity booms; they are challenged both by issues of mass poverty and distinct regional inequalities. Obviously, the capacity of a country to manage a keenly fought election without dissolving in anarchy or lapsing into authoritarian regression is central to democratic consolidation. Brazil, like South Africa and India is increasingly a player and model in the South for integrity and civility of its election and this last one has further bolstered that reputation. If Nigeria despite its challenges and cliff hangers pulls off decent elections next
year, it will similarly increase its power of attraction and would have nurtured an exportable model of successful elections to fledging democracies.
The Brazilian election teaches us for example that an election can raise the political temperature, feature severe brickbats, and a lot of unpleasantness including violence without derailing democracy. In what has been described as Brazil's most divisive election, supporters of the incumbent vandalised the corporate offices of Veja, the popular magazine that published allegations of bribery involving her. In spite of this heated atmosphere, shortly before the results were announced Neves called Roussef to congratulate her and in a remarkable concession speech made the point that what is more important "is the unity of the nation" beginning thereby a process of healing and reconciliation that was taken up by Roussef in her acceptance speech.
Nigerian politicians are yet to come this far in subscribing to a common national purpose which will transcend partisan loyalties. It will help matters as next year's elections approach for the stakeholders, politicians especially, to bear in mind that however severe electioneering gets it must not invite the kind of distemper that can throw the nation into further jeopardy. Needless to add that the by no means easy task of acting as an impartial umpire which has commendably begun under Professor Attahiru Jega would have to be both maintained and deepened.
Nigeria may wish to adopt the Brazilian model in which voting is mandatory for adult citizens below the age of 70. This ensures that citizens carry out their civic duty of voting, emphasizing thereby the participatory dimension of democracy. Several countries around the world have similar legislation but Brazil, Belgium and Australia are among the few that actually enforce it by monitoring compliance and stipulating substantial sanctions for those who default. If Nigeria copies this, it will ensure that our elections are inclusive in terms of voter participation while making it difficult for a handful of politicians to manipulate them.
As the opening quote suggests and in a trend which will likely be replicated in Nigeria there may be no candidates of substantial stature or greatness on offer. As far as the presidential race is concerned, Nigerians, long used to broken promises and the fallibility of the political class, are likely to settle for the less objectionable of the candidates in terms of their abilities to carry along a majority of the nation (across ethnicity, religion and class) and who will make life less nasty or brutal. It is too early to say what role the power of incumbency will play in Nigeria next year but if the Brazilian election is a predictor it might be inferred that it will be an uphill task though not impossible to beat an incumbent candidate sitting on vast patronage and a far-flung governmental machinery.
The other lesson we can take home is the clarity of ideological division among the parties. As Professor Niyi Akinnaso argued last week in 'Power without an Ideology of Governance' (The Punch, October 26, 2014), it is difficult to distinguish one party from another on the Nigerian terrain making it easy thereby for politicians to switch from one party to another and back again in search of conveniences. In the Brazilian election, there was a clear cut distinction between the Party of the left or left of centre campaigning on its record of imaginatively broadening social welfare programmes and lifting millions out of poverty; and the party of the Right supported interestingly by the international business community seeking to reform crony capitalism, grant more autonomy to the central bank and achieve less government intervention in the economy. The president herself, a former Marxist guerrilla was tortured by the Brazilian military and
developed into a leftist politician thereby maintaining consistency in ideological postures. Similarly, Neves, the son of a well-known aristocratic politician is the voice of big business whose electoral base is mainly in the cities.
One of the ways to straighten out the bedlam and lack of purpose in Nigerian politics is for the major parties to articulate coherent platforms around which politicians who believe in them can gather. The present situation whereby any politician who criticises government is labelled a 'progressive' is clearly unhealthy and increases the politics of governance without platforms not to talk of corrupt self-enrichment.
What we are hearing for now is the razzmatazz of the evolving campaigns with the usual paraphernalia of musicians and Nollywood actors. For our democracy to deepen beyond its current ephemeral stage, Nigerians must be able to hold our politicians down to definite promises based on discernable philosophies of governance.



Prof Olukotun is Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences and Entrepreneurial Studies at Lead City University, Ibadan. ayo_olukotun@yahoo.com 07055841236



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