Igbos Played Significant Role In Buhari’s Victory – Shettima
Adulkareem Haruma
— Apr 2, 2015 | 7 Comments
Borno State Governor Kashim Shettima has dispelled insinuation in certain quarters that the victory of the president-elect, Gen Muhammadu Buhari, was made possible by four geopolitical zones, excluding the south-east and the south-south.
According to him, the Ibos of the South-east ge-opolitical zone were silent forces that played significant roles in the victory of Buhari of the APC at the just concluded presidential elections.
The governor stated this, while addressing supporters after his return from Abuja where he went on Tuesday night to join other leaders of the APC ahead of Buhari’s declaration as President elect.
He noted that leaders of the APC in the south-east stood their ground in stopping the PDP from coming out with outrageous figures as votes from the zone the way it happened in 2011.
Shettima argued that it was for this singular act that votes garnered by Buhari in other geopolitical zones were enough to return him as president-elect.
He said, “Buhari’s election was an pan-Nigerian movement. I have heard some political analysts making some wrong conclusions that the Ibos in the South-east didn’t contribute significantly to Buhari’s victory, but I think they are missing the point because there are two key contributions to winning elections.
“One is to gives votes and the other is to prevent opponent from rigging and both have equal relevance. In the 2011 elections, the PDP got a combined figure of about seven million votes in the southeast, some of these states recorded or so they claimed, having almost 100 per cent voter turn out.
“But in 2015, Ibos in the southeast, especially our leaders in the APC stood very firm, some of them put their lives on the line, resisted all kinds of humiliation and at the end, they prevented another seven million votes from coming out”.
Using the votes from Rivers State as an instance, he said, “In Ebonyi the PDP got less than 300,000 votes, in Abia, the PDP got less than 400,000, even in Enugu the PDP got about 600,000 votes, in Imo also the PDP got less than 600,000 all these were against the big numbers of 2011.
“We all saw what happened in Rivers, if that was repeated in the southeast it would have been a major source of concern for all Nigerians but the Ibos did very well by resisting every step against Buhari so they are heroes as far as I am concerned. This is also the case in some parts of the south-south.
“In Bayelsa, the PDP could have recorded 600,000 or so votes but they got less than 400,000 because of the efforts of our men in Bayelsa who stood firm. In Edo State, Buhari wasn’t far from President Goodluck Jonathan in terms of votes”.
--I am enjoying you, Leke! I speak, as I presume, any ordinary Nigerian would in drawing these inferences. The implications from your data does suggest or in part seems to suggest invariably that Jonathan got a significantly lower margin in the East compared to 2011 and that explains his loss. While this is clear from the statistics, it was the scenario I feared the most: that Jonathan could have won the election with more "votes" mostly from the Eastern states and the midwest and middlebelt alone despite losing big in the overwhelming majority of the states in the federation. That is: Jonathan could have won 15 states but if he has the same margin as 2011 in the East would have won over Buhari’s decisive victory in 21 states. Is this what you are suggesting? But you are not asking the question how this could be so? How could Jonathan have lost the decisive votes of the 2011 election in the East, as the data shows, this time? What factors would have given us that problematic outcome/data. Wouldn’t that outcome, again, lead to a major debacle? The other suggestion you are making is that if the votes in the Northeast were as they were in 2011, Buhari would have won by almost the same margin as his current margin of victory despite the shift in the West. In other words, the depressed vote in the Northeast could not have cost Buhari the election. I understand what you are doing but the reality is that electoral politics is about divisions that often fall along the lines of any given set of preexisting stratifications. The North screamed they were marginalized when Obasanjo was elected! The South South could claim the same with the defeat of Jonathan. It is not the statistics showing Buhari won because Jonathan lost votes in the East that would allay the fear of domination. Regional alliances will continue to shape Nigerian politics for some time to come. A Southern strategy that included the West gave Jonathan victory in 2011. This is a feat the Awolowo and Zik could not accomplish: defeating the North by consolidating the South. Jonathan will go down in history as opening up that possibility. I bet we will soon be there again. This time, a North/West alliance gave Buhari a decisive victory. I do not see this entirely contradicted by your data.Please keep up the good work!BodeOn 4/2/15, 12:00 AM, "Leke Olalemi" <lekeolalemi@gmail.com> wrote:--Oga IBK: your tribute is fitting. Baba Kadiri's energy, as well as his abilities, are humbling. About 40 years ago, he was instrumental to getting Nigerians in Sweden to form a functional socio-cultural group; the only Nigerian embassy in Scandinavia is today - and has always been - located in Stockholm. Baba ("His Majesty"; re: the irrepressible Cornelius Hamelberg), will be 75 next year; his memory and agility are then no less than profoundly humbling. When Baba emerged here, one of our shinning lights regrettably insinuated that Baba was fictional; yet, none of anything above is privileged information...
Prof. Zalanga: There's a wealth of insight lurking in the data from this and past elections. INEC has been challenged to provide online all the data starting from the 2003 elections; they will have the time when the paperwork for the current elections are completed. Credible data is sacred; it unburdens from 'arriving' at conclusions unsupported by the facts; it could also help with thinking deeply about premises that may be misleading.
You wrote: "For instance if the shift in Southwest vote is "ethnic and malicious" how can that framework account for a dramatic shift in Bauchi State politics where the governor is PDP and all key officials are PDP?"
The 2011 and 2012 data could be employed to show that the "IF" part of the above statement is suspicious, and profoundly so, and certainly not in the context of the (existing, basic) data from the South East and South South. The "shift" could also be contextualised: some states (all in the same region) have voter turnout rates of 60% to 68%; the average for the country is about 45%...
Oga Bode: Here, one must resort to an old trick: if management appears rather unhappy with the "answer", then the data must be provided as clearly as possible... Here are the arithmetic results of the interesting "what if" scenarios you suggested:(To be read as, for example: "Had the South East given exactly the same number of votes to Buhari and Jonathan as in 2011, then Jonathan wins with 126,494 or 0.44% of 2015 TVV (total valid votes) ", etc etc)South East: Jonathan wins with 126,494 or 0.44% of 2015 TVVNorth West: Jonathan wins with 146,018 or 0.51% of 2015 TVVSouth West: Jonathan wins with 504,826 or 1.77% of 2015 TVVNorth Central: Buhari wins with 355,641 or 1.25% of 2015 TVVSouth South: Buhari wins with 799,264 or 2.80% of 2015 TVVNorth East: Buhari wins with 2,311,966 or 8.10% of 2015 TVVBuhari won in 2015 with a margin of 2,571,759 votes.To a report like this: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/04/buhari-victory-is-northyoruba-gang-up-against-n-delta-igbo-middle-belt-groups/ one could respond that in 2015, the two largest improvement margins ("shifts"?) for Buhari were in the SE & SS:(1) the South East gave Buhari 9.8 times the # of votes he got in 2011 (and gave Jonathan 51% less)(2) the South South gave Buhari 8.4 times the # of votes he got in 2011 (Jonathan got 23% less)(3) while the South South returned 77% of the votes to Jonathan in 2011, the South West returned 65%, and the South East returned only 49%.These are admittedly preliminary/elementary inferences from the data - the dynamics of the APC coalition would necessarily complicate the arithmetic, as will the introduction of Card Readers - but they are nonetheless illuminating. And, of course, these numbers are useful only to the extent that we remain open-minded regarding their interpretive value.
Leke OlalemiOn 1 April 2015 at 19:23, Ibukunolu A Babajide <ibk2005@gmail.com> wrote:Salimonu Kadiri,
I do not know who you are or what and where you descended from. I met you on this virtual world and you have restored my faith in Nigeria.
You are one fantastic and patriotic guy who is a blessing to Nigeria and a shining star of Nigerian industry. Throughout this campaign when the spin doctors came out with their panoply of lies you stepped in and with clinical accuracy punctured their balloons of lies.
What beat me hollow is your ability and speed. While I was still mulling the lie and articulating the best way to burst the bubble you are way out there with startling articulation put a needle to there bubble and with your razor sharp intellect shred their tissue of lies. I congratulate you and praise you to the high heavens.
I wish you know how many times I copied and pasted your posts and interventions to thrash the liars, forgers, and the fabricators of lies and misinformation. You are indeed a patriot and a great person.
God bless you and God bless Nigeria.
Cheers.
IBK
On 1 Apr 2015 15:00, "Salimonu Kadiri" <ogunlakaiye@hotmail.com> wrote:----15,416,221 Nigerians voted for Buhari to become President of Nigeria. Are the 15,416,221 electorates Boko Harams?
From: lekeolalemi@gmail.com
Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2015 13:54:30 +0200
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Fwd: Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria's Boko Haram President Elect
To: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.comBelow are the percentages of the total votes won by this "Boko Haram President" in 2011 and 2015:
2011 2015 FCT Abuja 34% 48% North Central 31% 59% North East 62% 78% North West 60% 84% South East 0.4% 7.3% South South 0.8% 8.1% South West 7% 56%
Do not let the data - nor common decency - influence your prejudice... "Boko Haram president" indeed.
Leke OlalemiOn 1 April 2015 at 13:26, olugbenga Ojo <olugbenga.ojo@gmail.com> wrote:The main participant has accepted defeat I wonder what you want to achieve by calling names. Lets join hands to repair and rebuild Nigeria. Constructive criticism should follow the election declared results moreso when the contestant who lost had even reached out to the winner. I do not know the extent you would have gone if president Goodluck Jonathan did not accept defeat and congratulate GMD. We all should learn from whatever the mistakes of the incumbent president are to guide ourselves when in any position of authority.RegardsOn Wed, Apr 1, 2015 at 11:20 AM, Ibukunolu A Babajide <ibk2005@gmail.com> wrote:Toying,
You are a sore loser! You continue with your lies in your campaign of calumny after elections!
Cheers.
IBK
On 1 Apr 2015 11:06, "Oluwatoyin Adepoju" <toyindanteifa@gmail.com> wrote:
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