Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - The Gambia dilemma, on everybody's mind

I think that history with Charles Taylor (who breached the terms of his asylum and thus shipped himself down the river) would make it unlikely that Nigeria would be President Jammeh's haven of choice.  But if it would lead the bull out of the china shop and remove the real danger of using civilians as human shields, it would still be preferable.

On Thu, Jan 5, 2017 at 2:36 PM, Cornelius Hamelberg <corneliushamelberg@gmail.com> wrote:

The Gambian army is only 1,000 fighting men strong, many of them with no real military training and it's not certain that all of their commissioned / non-commissioned officers are aware of e.g. The Geneva convention. Three months ago, President Jammeh took the Islamic Republic of the Gambia out of the ICC.

In addition to the official army there are also what can be called the President's own private militia, perhaps well armed, but in the eventuality of an invasion by land, sea and air, how they would be able to resist defeat for more than a few hours is hard to imagine. How many of his fighting men will remain loyal to him when the chips are down and imminent defeat is a certainty, is another question. Like Gbagbo, President Jammeh could be captured - by e-g. a commando unit - even if he has a bunker, like Saddam or Gaddafi, but the real danger consists in the possible use of civilians as human shields, as this would result in the terrible loss of innocent civilian lives.

All said and done, presently - and after twenty-two years in power, the equivalent of approximately five and half terms of four years, is President Jammeh still so popular that he would win a free and fair election?

Unlike José Mujica once known as " the world's poorest president", President Jammeh is not a poor man .In the circumstances, the best way out for him is to be be assured of a safe passage out of the Gambia along with 400 of his big family to a safe haven of his choice – and hopefully not to e.g. Nigeria , who after granting Charles Taylor asylum, eventually shipped him down river...

--
Listserv moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin
To post to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com
To subscribe to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue+subscribe@googlegroups.com
Current archives at http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
Early archives at http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "USA Africa Dialogue Series" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to usaafricadialogue+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.

--
Listserv moderated by Toyin Falola, University of Texas at Austin
To post to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue@googlegroups.com
To subscribe to this group, send an email to USAAfricaDialogue+subscribe@googlegroups.com
Current archives at http://groups.google.com/group/USAAfricaDialogue
Early archives at http://www.utexas.edu/conferences/africa/ads/index.html
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "USA Africa Dialogue Series" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to usaafricadialogue+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.