The Gambian army is only 1,000 fighting men strong, many of them with no real military training and it's not certain that all of their commissioned / non-commissioned officers are aware of e.g. The Geneva convention. Three months ago, President Jammeh took the Islamic Republic of the Gambia out of the ICC.
In addition to the official army there are also what can be called the President's own private militia, perhaps well armed, but in the eventuality of an invasion by land, sea and air, how they would be able to resist defeat for more than a few hours is hard to imagine. How many of his fighting men will remain loyal to him when the chips are down and imminent defeat is a certainty, is another question. Like Gbagbo, President Jammeh could be captured - by e-g. a commando unit - even if he has a bunker, like Saddam or Gaddafi, but the real danger consists in the possible use of civilians as human shields, as this would result in the terrible loss of innocent civilian lives.
All said and done, presently - and after twenty-two years in power, the equivalent of approximately five and half terms of four years, is President Jammeh still so popular that he would win a free and fair election?
Unlike José Mujica once known as " the world's poorest president", President Jammeh is not a poor man .In the circumstances, the best way out for him is to be be assured of a safe passage out of the Gambia along with 400 of his big family to a safe haven of his choice – and hopefully not to e.g. Nigeria , who after granting Charles Taylor asylum, eventually shipped him down river...
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