Anything that halts the informal economy is destroying lives. Thousands of people rely on trade to make a minimal living. They are not involved with all the power games. There is an extensive trade network—so if those carrying goods from Cotonou and Lagos to Niamey are prevented, who is being punished?
Why not ask the junta to return the country to a so-called democracy, and they can change their uniform?
If Tinubu is trying to send a message that there will be no more coups, he is daydreaming.
TF
From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Jibrin Ibrahim <jibrinibrahim891@gmail.com>
Date: Friday, August 4, 2023 at 9:50 AM
To: 'chidi opara reports' via USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Subject: USA Africa Dialogue Series - No to war
Niger: Apply Pressure BUT Stop the Countdown to War
Jibrin Ibrahim, Deepening Democracy, Daily Trust, 4th August 2023
Last Sunday, at its 51st Extraordinary Summit in Abuja, ECOWAS announced a series of resolutions that would guide its action towards the restoration of constitutional order in Niger following the coup. The most spectacular was as follows:
"In the event the Authority's demands are not met within one week, take all measures necessary to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger. Such measures may include the use of force; To this effect, the Chiefs of defense staff of ECOWAS are to meet immediately."
This type of threat worked effectively in ousting President Jammeh of the Gambia in 2017 because there was unity of purpose in the entire region and the military threat against such a small country was credible. The situation in Niger and in West Africa today is significantly different after a fourth coup in the region. It is important to think carefully before taking a risky path. I am however confident that it is possible to reverse the current trend of the return of the military.
It would be recalled that on 9th July 2023, President Bola Tinubu was elected Chairman of ECOWAS. In his acceptance speech, he warned that the threat to peace in the region had reached an alarming proportion with terrorism and an emerging pattern of military takeovers that ECOWAS must take concerted action addressing with the urgency the matter demands. This decision of Nigeria to retake its leadership position in West Africa is positive. His first action point as ECOWAS Chairman was establishing the Presidential Troika + 1 (Talon - Benin, Embalo – Guinea Bissau and Bazoum - Niger + Umar Tourray, President of ECOWAS Commission to develop an immediate action plan to address terrorism and coups d'états in West Africa. The four presidents met in Abuja on 18th July and drew up plans to engage Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea on expeditious return to constitutional rule, credible and inclusive elections.
Shortly thereafter, President Bazoum himself became the next victim of a coup. President Tinubu is right to show strong leadership in this struggle against terrorism and return of the military. His actions however need to be carefully considered as the threat is against not just one but four countries – Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea, who have already announced that they will fight together if Niger is attacked. Algeria has also issued a statement stating it would not allow a repeat of the dismantling of the state and subsequent chaos that was allowed to happen to Libya. Niger itself is not completely isolated as its borders with Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Libya and Algeria have already been reopened. The only closed borders it has today are with Nigeria and Benin.
Nigeria, on whose neck a lot of action would rely on has to consider the long history of amical and fraternal relations it has had with both the State and people of Niger. During the civil war, in spite of a lot of pressure, Niger resisted French solicitations to support Biafra. When they wanted to dam the river Niger, they accepted Nigeria's appeal not to, so that Nigeria could fully benefit from its own hydroelectric dams on the River Niger. In compensation, we have been providing them electricity until the current sanctions' regime went into force and the supply was stopped. What would be the implications of this measure for future bilateral relations?
The most important concern I have for the threat of war is the current geopolitical dynamics in which France and the United States are determined to keep a foothold in Niger where they have stationed their solders and have a major drone base in Agadez covering the entire region. As France has already been booted out of Burkina Faso and Mali, and their place taken over by the Russian Wagner Group, the risk of a proxy war between world powers could easily replace the ECOWAS objective of the restoration of the democratic order. Already, there are reports that the Niger putschists have gone to Mali for meetings with the Wagner Group. For Nigeria, the implications of a military confrontation could be the inflow of millions of refugees and maybe terrorists into our territory.
I believe that ECOWAS must maintain its principle of Zero Tolerance for unconstitutional change of government as enshrined in the ECOWAS and African Union Protocols and other instruments but the sanctions regime currently being implemented should be enough to force the hands of the junta. These include:
1. Closure of land and air borders between ECOWAS countries and Niger;
2. Institution of ECOWAS no-fly zone on all commercial flights to and from
Niger;
3. Suspension of all commercial and financial transactions between
ECOWAS Member States and Niger;
4. Freeze of all service transaction including utility services;
5. Freeze of assets of the Republic of Niger in ECOWAS Central Banks;
6. Freeze of assets of the Niger State and the State Enterprises and
Parastatals in Commercial Banks;
7. Suspension of Niger from all financial assistance and transactions with
all financial institutions, particularly, EBID and BOAD;
8. Travel ban and asset freeze for the military officials involved in the coup
attempt. The same applies to their family members and the civilians who
accept to participate in any institutions or government established by these military officials.
It is also important to maintain and indeed intensify the current mediation efforts. In this regard, I strongly support the dispatch of a mediation team to Niamey yesterday by theChairman of the ECOWAS, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu with a mandate to expeditiously resolve the current political impasse in the country. The delegation is headed by former Nigerian Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar (Rtd). Other members are the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammad Sa'ad Abubakar III and the President of the ECOWAS Commission, Omar Alieu Touray. President Tinubu has also sent a separate delegation led by Ambassador Babagana Kingibe to engage with the leaders of Libya and Algeria on the Niger crisis.
Public opinion in Niger and indeed in much of the Sahel is very deeply anti-French. ECOWAS needs to be careful and ensure that the people do not see its actions as being teleguided by French and American imperialism. The ECOWAS Vision 2050 is for a West Africa of the peoples and the organisation must conduct itself in a way and manner that does not alienate the said peoples.
Professor Jibrin Ibrahim
Senior Fellow
Centre for Democracy and Development, Abuja
Follow me on twitter @jibrinibrahim17
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