Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: Nigerian uranium

I read a really good piece on the coup by an african scholar based in canada; forgot his name.

His argument was very convincing. 

First, just to be honest about it: it was not a result of a popular uprising; and no one really knows who the people of niger feel about it.

It was simply a palace coup, a military coup. Not led by a bunch of idealist sankara types either, but by the head of the palace guards, general tiani, who has been supporting bazoum all along.

It is simply a military coup, not a strike against mismanagement or any of that. Further, i agree that the issue is not uranium. It is definitely a factor for france, but not the major reason for them or anyone to be in niger. That was bush's lie over the war in iraq.

Africa has known military coups before; we all know. But these three in a row--burkina, mali, niger--involve a movement against the french presence. France had already decided to draw down barkhane in burkina before the coup. Nothing new there or in mali. But there are 1500 french troops in niger and 1100 american. These do not seem like "massive" anything to me; but they are thebulkhead of american and french mobilization against jihadist movements in the sahel.

I don't want to repeat all the detailed analysis of who is fighting whom in the sahel; it is an oversimplification to read it in islamist terms. In some cases touaregs used islamism to recruit, but nothing i've read says it is at the heart of the disputes. They involve increasingly dire land shortages, pitting dogon against touareg etc etc etc. land and water shortages, and difficulties in surviving. The govts have not been able to provide the needed security; nor could the french. That got turned against the french, which i find bizarre. I believe there was a legitimate gripe against the govts in the region; you all know recollect their conflicts with the touaregs and why.

The analyst i read said this is no shifting revolution; it is military long in place deciding simply they want to be in charge, for whatever reason. 

Since the two coups in the region, islamist violence and especially civilian deaths have gone up, in part due to wagner's brutality. 

More wagner means more neocolonialism in the region, more military brutalities and killings, more dictatorship. How will the populations as a whole make out? Who knows. The ordinary people want peace, simply peace. 

Will real peace come through wagner's guns? I doubt it, but i don't know.

As a personal footnote, mali and burkina faso were two of my favorite places on earth. Now the sahel is only a place for tears.

Ken

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From: usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Cornelius Hamelberg <corneliushamelberg@gmail.com>
Sent: Friday, August 4, 2023 9:04:32 AM
To: USA Africa Dialogue Series <usaafricadialogue@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: Nigerian uranium

 

Ken, 

Since George Ayittey passed away it's no longer easy to be provocative with short shots, and cheap sound bites.

To be fair to the people of Niger and the current Niger Military, the coup is not primarily about uranium, it's about the mismanagement of the country's resources and the country's potential. Whenever and wherever coups occur in Africa,  it's usually about bad government/ governance that' usually entrenched, immobile and otherwise unmovable 

What choice do the people usually have when it's two or three bad apples contesting a presidential election and vying to be the next commander-in-thief? So, the people are generally, often reduced to having to choose between the lesser of two or three evils.

There's depth ( not debt)  in singling out the IMF and the World as the devils dictating, structural adjustment programs demanding devaluation of the country's currency and taking away various subsidies, be it subsidies to education  - the bitter medicine that Jerry Rawlings once had to swallow,  or taking away subsidies to agriculture….

The IMF, the World Bank, where you have people like Johnson Sirleaf once oiling that machinery.

And what is e. g.  Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, visibly supposed to be the beautiful face of the WTO, what is she saying and doing about the ongoing looting of Africa's mineral resources and other precious commodities going for dirt cheap, apart from merely presiding over it and occasionally lamenting that we are in deep shit? 

BTW, talking about villains, I'm sure that you too loved this lovable villain Samba Traoré

On Friday, 4 August 2023 at 02:32:33 UTC+2 Harrow, Kenneth wrote:

I wonder who needs the uranium? France is the only eu country with serious commitment to nuclear energy, and now i believe a large percentage of their nuclear plants are closed. I believe they are, like germany, committed to going green, not going nuclear. 

Maybe the market is n korea for its missiles.

As for the question cornelius posed, what has france done for niger in all these years, it would be interesting to hear the answer—which i do not know. But one answer i would want to include would be one where the govts of niger are not treated as if they were totally passive victims, with no agency. I might have thought that 30 years ago,but now i believe that there are better govts in africa and worse, and it is important for us not to strip govts of their accountability. Even as i know exterior actors are also crucial. And when it comes to exterior,who is more important in niger: the imf and world bank, france, u.s., china? Does anyone know? When sissako made his magnificent film, Bamako, the villain in the piece was not france, it was the world bank.

Ken

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From: usaafric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Cornelius Hamelberg <cornelius...@gmail.com>
Sent: Thursday, August 3, 2023 8:09:16 PM
To: usaafric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: USA Africa Dialogue Series - Re: Nigerian uranium

 

Correction ( sorry)Should read :

...but it's the people's Niger and not the people of Nigeria and other neighbouring states that should have the final say so about the future of Niger's domestic politics and Niger's relations with Burkina Faso  Mali, Guinea, Chad,  Algeria, Libya, the United States, France etc.

On Fri, 4 Aug 2023 at 01:56, Cornelius Hamelberg <cornelius...@gmail.com> wrote:

I know so little about all this but believe that common sense and a sense of fair play should prevail here.

The figures are official, for all we know, a conservative estimate, and we may take their word for it, but for example, no one really knows how much oil leaving the shores of Nigeria, unofficially, and the extent of the unofficial exports was brought home to us recently with news of an oil tanker being seized at sea, laden with stolen oil 

So, some mines are closing down, the price of the commodity is being determined by its availability on the world market, and the reality is that since the uranium is not going to last forever, what are the options for the poverty-stricken people of Niger and their already cash strapped economy?

The glimpses of poor infrastructure and the pictures of endless laterite roads leave one wondering what has France done for Niger since Niger became independent in 1960, and that's all of 63 years ago? This leaves the new era Africa wondering what would China not do in e,g Niger when it comes to building necessary infrastructure, roads, schools, hospitals, developing agriculture etc in exchange for uranium and other mineral assets and cooperation that Niger is willing to offer?

Whatever negotiations ECOWAS may conclude with the Junta, it's unlikely that it would be in the cards that the coup makers should retain their military rank and status if the deposed president/puppet were to be reinstated. So the probable compromise has to be that fresh elections should be held within the next three to five years, and in the meantime, the mining agreements etc will be revised, not necessarily revoked, but it's the people's finger and not the people of Nigeria and other neighbouring states that should have the final say so about the future of Niger's domestic politics and Niger'srealtions with Burkina Faso  Mali, Guinea, Chad,  Algeria, Libya, the United States, France etc.

Today there have been massive people's demonstrations in Niger in support of the coup.

Ostensibly, the people's aims and the military's aims are the same:  better life conditions for everybody which so far they say that the democratically elected government has woefully failed to deliver after two years of the country standing still/ some say deteriorating under their management. The sanctions that they want to pass on Niger will only increase the suffering that the people of Niger will unnecessarily have to endure, the kind of suffering/punishment that those who pass such sanctions hope will make the people turn against the military and bring both the people and the military to submission - although the people and the military would really much prefer to only submit to the one and only Allah subhanahu wa ta'ala !

On Thursday, 3 August 2023 at 21:50:24 UTC+2 Harrow, Kenneth wrote:

By another measurement, niger produces 4% of world supply of uranium, and that's going down as the mines runout. The french hold a majority share in the niger mines.

Anyone's seen themovie Arlit knows it's a dirty story.

Ken

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From: Harrow, Kenneth
Sent: Thursday, August 3, 2023 3:32:11 PM
To: USAAfric...@googlegroups.com <usaafric...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Nigerian uranium

 

Not a major source and two of the three mines shut down or shutting down ....

The opposite of claims that is all about uranium

From le monde today: Quantité d'uranium naturel importé en France

Kazakhstan (23 822 tonnes)

Niger (17 615 tonnes)

Ouzbékistan (16 792 tonnes)

Australie (12 349 tonnes)

Namibie (12 303 tonnes)

Canada (4 043 tonnes)

Brésil (628 tonnes)

Kirghizistan (506 tonnes)

République tchèque (120 tonnes)

Hongrie (22 tonnes)

Ken

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